In our Global Commercial Real Estate Outlook 2026, we explained that the CRE cycle has entered the recovery phase according to almost all classic indicators. Our five-signal market barometer shows that this recovery has remained intact in Q1 2026. No single signal is sufficient in itself, but their interaction and sequence provide a convincing basis for assessing the further development of commercial real estate.
- U.S. listed REITs, our leading indicator, have moved from the recovery phase to the expansion phase.
- All major private equity indices recorded valuation increases in Q1 2026, continuing their recovery from the trough.
- Credit markets remain open and liquid, especially at the largest banks.
- The transaction volume continued to rise.
- Distress as a lagging indicator shows the first signs that the peak may have been reached.
- The sentiment indicators point to a more differentiated assessment without losing the fundamental conviction.
The bottom line is that we believe that despite a volatile geopolitical environment, the recovery remains intact and has even gained momentum.
Rich Hill
Senior Managing Director – Global Head of Real Estate Research and Strategy
