The Cologne investment market draws a mixed balance after the first half of 2026. With a transaction volume of €349 million, the comparatively low prior-year result was exceeded by 12%, but the long-term average of €610 million was still clearly missed (-43%). This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
“After a strong start to the year with € 256 million in the first quarter, the closing momentum slowed noticeably in the second quarter, so that only a further € 93 million was registered,” says David Braun, Cologne branch manager of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH. Cologne thus falls back to 6th place in the ranking of the top locations, but continues to hold its own ahead of Stuttgart.
It is striking that the transaction frequency did not decrease in the second quarter, but the trades were significantly smaller. While one transaction between €50 million and €100 million and three deals between €25 million and €50 million were registered in the first quarter, the largest deal in the second quarter was only in the segment between €25 million and €50 million. This is also reflected in the average deal volume, which is at a comparatively low level of around €17 million.
The volatile financing environment and geopolitical uncertainties have led to yield increases in all asset classes in a twelve-month comparison. Logistics (+35 bps) and office properties (+20 bps) are now yielding 4.60% each, while 4.00% (+15 bps) are being assessed for commercial buildings in prime locations.
Office investments with a very high market share – high revenue contribution from medium-sized deals (€ 25-50 million)
With a market share of 69% or a volume of € 242 million, office properties contribute the highest half-year contribution to the overall result since 2022 in absolute terms. The result is based on several medium-sized deals, with the sale of a property in the Mediapark for around € 90 million making a significant contribution. The logistics asset class also deserves positive mention, achieving an above-average market share of 17% at € 59 million (Ø10 years: 9%). Hotels and especially retail, on the other hand, have so far played only a subordinate role, contributing only 6% and 2% respectively to the transaction volume.
The size class distribution underlines the currently more fragmented market structure. With
€142 million, or 41% of the transaction volume, is represented by trades between €25 million and €25 million.
50 million € and even exceeded its long-term average (Ø10 years: 116 million €). Large deals above €50 million, on the other hand, remain in short supply, achieving a market share of only 26%, while this segment accounted for an average of around half of the total volume over the past ten years.
The central locations continue to have a significant impact on market activity. City and Cityrand account for a cumulative 74% of the transaction volume (Ø10 years: 78%). Secondary locations and periphery each contribute 13% to the overall result. The periphery in particular thus achieves an above-average market share in a long-term comparison.
Outlook: broad demand base creates good conditions for the 2nd half of the year, continued market recovery
The market stabilisation is expected to continue in the second half of the year. The solid transaction frequency and brisk activity in the mid-market segment underpin the continued investor demand. The high volume in the office segment, which is based on a broad deal basis, is also positive.
At the same time, the framework conditions remain challenging. The financing environment, geopolitical risks and the continued fragility of the economy can delay larger transactions in particular and have a negative impact on market activity in the short term. Accordingly, the recovery of the investment market is likely to continue to be gradual.
Nevertheless, Cologne should benefit from its diversified economic structure, a broad investor base and a well-filled pipeline. “Against this backdrop, a moderate revival in transaction activity seems likely for the year as a whole. However, an annual result above the billion mark and thus at the level of the two previous years will probably require further major transactions in the segment above € 100 million, which have so far failed to materialise this year. However, a result at the level of the long-term average is likely to remain out of reach,” explains Lars Faßbender, Cologne branch manager of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
