BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes market figures for Q3 2026
At the end of September 2026, Berlin’s investment market recorded a result that was unusual by its own standards: with a transaction volume of around one billion euros after the first three quarters, it found itself not at the top of the rankings, but in third place amongst the leading investment locations, behind Munich (around €1.7 billion) and Hamburg (around €1.2 billion). Whilst the capital had already surpassed the one-billion-euro mark by the middle of the year by a wide margin in each of the last five years (5-year average: almost €2 billion), the major revenue drivers were almost entirely absent over the course of this year. The partial sale of the prime office properties Linden-Corso and Atrium as part of a joint venture is therefore the only investment in the three-figure million range worth mentioning. This is the finding of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
“The extremely low average transaction value – amounting to a mere €18 million – serves as a telling indicator of the currently highly fragmented nature of investment activity. This reflects a historically low number of large-scale transactions. So far this year, only one deal worth over €100 million and another exceeding €50 million have been successfully completed. By contrast, the number of sales in the segment up to €50 million remains stable,” explains Jan Dohrwardt, Managing Director and Head of the Berlin branch of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
The renewed surge in financial market-driven uncertainty is broadly reflected in rising prime yields (+10 basis points in Q3 across all property types): retail assets currently stand at 4.05 per cent, offices at up to 4.60 per cent and logistics properties at 4.70 per cent.
Due to its fragmented structure: no single asset class stands out
Given the low overall result, it is hardly surprising that all property types and sub-areas within the Berlin market saw a decline in turnover. Whilst the outskirts of the city centre account for the highest contribution to earnings at just over 41 per cent, the lack of major transactions is reflected in the turnover figures for the ‘Topcity’ (just over 20 per cent) and the city centre (around 29 per cent). Nevertheless, more than 20 sales, spread across a wide range of asset classes within the S-Bahn ring, are a clear sign of the market dynamism in Berlin’s most sought-after sub-markets.
The top ranking of office properties – which traditionally generate high turnover – also sends a positive signal for the Berlin market, even though they were only able to generate a moderate volume of transactions in this instance: following the sale of stakes in the Linden-Corso and Atrium properties, as well as a large number of smaller deals up to €25 million, this top asset class accounts for just under 28 per cent of the total. Furthermore, the fragmented market structure and the absence of major deals in the established property types are reflected in the high proportion of ‘other investments’ (almost 25 per cent). These include, amongst other things, transactions involving mixed-use properties and plots of land.
The retail and hotel sectors are also well represented, accounting for a further 20 per cent and just under 19 per cent respectively. In the hotel sector in particular, around 10 deals underscore Berlin’s continued significance as an international tourism hub.
Outlook
In the first nine months, the Berlin investment market has not yet been able to match the performance to which it has become accustomed over the past ten years or more, even under difficult conditions. As a result, it is currently unable to claim a top position in the turnover rankings for A-class locations and has yet to record any major nationwide transactions in 2026. However, this does not mean that market activity in the capital is stagnating across the board. In this context, investment activity in the current year has increasingly taken place in the smaller size segments and, to some extent, outside the top property types such as premium office or high-street investments.
“And given that Berlin, in particular, has often demonstrated in the past that this investment stronghold can generate considerable transaction volumes even without the tailwind of a favourable market environment, a return to strong turnover figures is likely only a matter of time. In any case, the current above-average turnover of office space in the lettings market is a cause for optimism, further bolstering confidence in the office investment sector. Given that the majority of major office locations are currently experiencing a slight downturn, this could result in a small competitive advantage, drawing investors’ focus in the crucial office sector even more strongly towards the capital,” adds Jan Dohrwardt. Pricing continues to present challenges, and selective adjustments to yields cannot be ruled out in the coming months. Consequently, it is to be expected that values across the various property types will certainly rise once again by the end of the year.
