Catella has published its new European logistics map. The “European Logistics Market Overview Q2 2026” covers 50 markets in 20 countries and provides an up-to-date overview of prime yields, rent levels and the structural demand drivers of the European logistics sector.
After several years of exceptional rental growth and falling yields, European logistics markets are returning to calm. Prime yields remain broadly stable, and rental growth has flattened out, indicating that the industry’s extraordinary period of growth is coming to an end. In the current geopolitical turmoil, this stability underlines the role of logistics real estate as a resilient asset class, underpinned by secure income and rental growth.
“The phase of hyper-growth is over – and that is a healthy development. The market is finding its own benchmark, with both tenants and owners recalibrating their expectations,” says Katharina Ganschow, Research Manager at Catella Investment Management.
Prices for logistics properties: Europe stagnates, Italy recovers
In almost all markets, prime yields are either stable or rising selectively. The unweighted average prime yield across the markets analysed is 5.47% in Q2 2026, a change of +20 basis points since the last published logistics map. [1] Italian logistics markets, especially Milan, are standing out: after an overcorrection in the previous year, Milan and Rome are now recording a decline (by -15 and -25 basis points respectively), reversing the strong increase of the previous year instead of initiating a new trend of their own.
The German and French logistics markets are seeing the most significant upward yields – for example, Paris (+25 basis points), where the prime yield is currently at 4.95%. In the rest of Europe, yields are essentially unchanged.
Renting: The logistics sector is finding a new normal
The average prime rent in the markets analysed in the 2nd quarter of 2026 is €8.30/m²/month. This is only a slight increase compared to €8.05/m²/month in the previous year – an increase of 3.11%. Adjusted for inflation, this corresponds to limited real rent growth. This confirms that the market is stabilising and absorbing the increased volume of new supply that entered European markets last year.
This was preceded by several years of double-digit year-on-year rental growth rates from a much lower baseline: European prime rents in the logistics sector have structurally increased from around €5/m²/month to today’s level of around €8/m²/month. This structural change now appears to be largely complete, as demand stabilises and the market settles down to a new benchmark rather than overheating further. Several markets, notably the UK and parts of Germany, have seen no rental growth at all over the past twelve months.
Special Topic: What Is Really Driving Logistics Demand?
In addition, Catella Research has examined the drivers of logistics demand against the backdrop of the general slowdown in the industry. To do this, the research team compared e-commerce growth per country with the growth of logistics-related gross value added (GVA) per city between 2022 and 2026 to determine where the structural demand for logistics space is actually strongest.
The comparison shows a partial decoupling of the two indicators. A strong
E-commerce growth does not automatically lead to strong momentum in the logistics sector: Budapest associates the highest e-commerce growth in the sample (+9.6%) with negative growth in logistics-related gross value added (-0.31%), and Dublin has the largest decline in logistics-related gross value added in the dataset (-5.4%), in addition to solid e-commerce growth (+4.7%). Germany shows a similar pattern in several cities – for example, Cologne and Düsseldorf, both of which record gross value added growth of around -2.5%.
Conversely, Polish and French cities such as Warsaw (+4.7%) and Paris (+4.9%) are characterised by comprehensive momentum in the logistics sector. They combine solid e-commerce growth with above-average growth in gross value added in the logistics sector, underlining their role in the ongoing supply chain redesign. Their combination of strong retail connectivity and diversified industrial activity gives Warsaw and Paris a structural advantage, which should continue to translate into above-average rental growth in the coming years. The UK has the lowest e-commerce growth in the sample (+1.1%), yet London continues to record comparatively strong growth in gross value added in the logistics sector (+2.7%) – a sign of resilient underlying demand even in a mature e-commerce market.
“When tenants decide on a market today, they are increasingly relying on the economy as a whole – e-commerce is no longer the dominant driver, but it contributes to stabilizing logistics demand,” adds Katharina Ganschow .
[1] As the underlying group of markets analysed changed between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026, this comparison of average prime yield is based on the subset of markets captured in both periods to ensure comparability on an equal basis.
