Ulrich Creydt, Tax Consultant and Managing Director, Ypsilon Group:
"It is not surprising that the ECB is leaving the interest rate at the previous level. It had already raised the key interest rate by 25 basis points in mid-June. Since then, the most important economic fundamentals have hardly changed. Only crude oil prices have risen more sharply in recent days since the US took stronger military action against Iran.
It remains to be seen whether these military strikes are temporary or permanent. If the Iran war were to escalate, the German economy could suffer due to massive energy price increases and supply chain disruptions: Inflation and consumer prices could rise and the ECB could raise interest rates at the next interest rate decision on September 10.
At present, however, a wait-and-see attitude dominates, combined with the confidence that the current geopolitical upheavals do not require a change in monetary policy. Stable interest rates are good for the real estate market, which is currently more resilient than expected. Despite many geopolitical crises, the number of transactions in the investment sector even increased in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year.
