BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes market figures for Q3 2026
The performance of the hotel investment market over the first three quarters should be viewed from two perspectives. On the one hand, the lack of revenue drivers has resulted in a transaction volume of around €1 billion – a decline of just over 27 per cent compared with the strong same period last year. On the other hand, however, the number of deals reflects a completely different – and thus significantly more positive – market sentiment: by the end of September 2026, around 27 per cent more deals had been recorded than in 2025, meaning that the first three quarters actually saw the highest number of sales since Q1–3 2022. This is according to an analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
“It should therefore be noted that market momentum in the hotel sector has by no means slowed down, but is currently simply structured in a highly fragmented manner. All size categories up to €50 million have grown by around 30 per cent each, whilst turnover from deals exceeding €50 million has fallen by just under 65 per cent. Among the largest deals were the sale of 11 Pentahotels in Germany, Belgium and France – six of which are in Germany – as well as the two transactions facilitated by BNP Paribas Real Estate involving the Intercity and Excelsior hotels, situated in the immediate vicinity of Frankfurt and Munich main stations respectively,” explains Alexander Trobitz, Managing Director and Head of Hotel Services at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
The investment activities of international investors paint the same picture as the market as a whole: the positive momentum seen here is reflected not in transaction volumes, but in the increased number of deals. Overall, foreign investors have accounted for around €500 million of turnover to date, representing a share of just over 48 per cent.
Tier-A cities: Lively market activity without any major deals; guest nights remain consistently high
Investor interest in hotel investments in Germany’s prime ‘A’ locations – which are strong in terms of both tourism and the economy – remains high, as reflected in more than 20 successfully completed transactions to date. Nevertheless, the total investment volume in the top seven cities amounts to only around €508 million, which represents a decline of just under 37 per cent compared with the same period last year and is attributable to the low number of transactions exceeding €50 million. There is currently a lack of large-scale, flagship core deals, which largely shaped the market throughout 2025. A higher transaction frequency in this segment is hampered by a limited supply of premium properties and highly complex and meticulous acquisition processes.
When looking at the various cities individually, Berlin currently stands out. The capital benefits from a large number of smaller properties across a wide range of formats (from budget to more upmarket concepts and operators)
(€186 million). There was also substantial investment in Munich, where, alongside the Excelsior Hotel, sales in the serviced apartments sector were the main drivers (€131 million). Frankfurt (€95 million), Hamburg, Düsseldorf (€37 million each) and Cologne (€22 million), by contrast, remain below the €100 million and €50 million marks respectively. Meanwhile, performance indicators are once again sending positive signals, as demonstrated, amongst other things, by the number of guest nights. In this context, five of the seven major tourist cities under review have reported half-year figures that are either stable or slightly higher compared with 2025.
Outlook: Strong guest numbers continue to provide a tailwind; momentum remains high, particularly in the smaller segment
Even though the transaction volume for the first nine months of 2026 paints a different picture, the outlook for the German hotel investment market is certainly positive. In particular, the 27 per cent increase in the number of deals compared with the same period last year marks a record high across all asset classes, even when compared with the top property types in the office, retail and logistics sectors.
Strong visitor numbers, and the consequent positive trend in key performance indicators such as occupancy rates, ADR and RevPAR, form the basis for more buoyant investment momentum. The thriving domestic tourism sector, in particular – which recorded a new record for overnight stays nationwide at the half-year mark – plays a significant role here. Nevertheless, investors remain highly selective in their purchasing decisions. The operator, concept and performance must be convincing. Only in a second step do location, market and property quality factor into the pricing of a successful transaction.
“For 2026 as a whole, a nationwide hotel investment volume of around €1.5 billion is on the cards. The transactions currently in the pipeline – several of which are in the region of the €100 million mark – suggest that the pace of deal-making will pick up again in the fourth quarter and that the volume will rise significantly once more, driven primarily by major deals,” says Alexander Trobitz, summarising the outlook.
Link to the market report: https://www.realestate.bnpparibas.de/marktberichte/hotel-investmentmarkt/deutschland-report
