The deposit rate remains unchanged at 2.0%. The step was largely expected despite the recent rise in inflation. According to provisional April data, inflation in Germany rose from 1.9% in February to 2.9% in April as a result of higher energy prices. At the same time, core inflation declined from 2.5% to 2.3%.
The ECB thus remains clearly data-driven. The decisive factor is not so much the current surge in energy prices as the question of whether it will become entrenched in inflation expectations. If the effect remains temporary, the central bank is likely to wait. If the momentum solidifies, the pressure to act increases.
In addition, the economic development in the euro area remains weak. Premature tightening would increase the risk of slowing down the economic recovery. Accordingly, there is much to be said for a continuation of the wait-and-see course.
For the interest-rate-sensitive real estate market, this means stability in the short term. The interest rate pause provides orientation, but the outlook remains closely linked to inflation and geopolitical developments.
Conclusion: The ECB remains in a waiting position. In view of energy prices and inflation, a renewed tightening in the summer remains a realistic scenario.
