- E-commerce is gaining strength, international providers are expanding the field of providers
- Vacancies remain the exception despite regional oversupply in Berlin and Leipzig
- Defence sector will gain in importance in the medium term; additional potential of up to 14.9 million m² in the European market in the long term.
The logistics real estate market is facing a phase of moderate stabilisation, while at the same time new structural demand drivers are becoming apparent. This became clear at the online press conference "Between vacancy and new demand drivers: How will the logistics real estate market align itself in 2026?", which was attended by Tobias Kassner, Head of Research & ESG at GARBE Industrial, Maximilian Tappert, Head of Transaction Management Logistics at HIH Invest, Marten Helms, Senior Fund Manager Europe at Catella Investment Management and Manuel Schrapers, Managing Director at Metroplan, participations.
The fundamental cost drivers in the market, in particular construction prices, land prices and financing costs, are declining slightly, but will not normalise at pre-2020 levels. Yields and rents are stable, and vacancy rates in Germany remain at a low level by international standards. Only a few markets such as Berlin and Leipzig are currently recording rising vacancies due to considerable speculative development volumes. In the large established logistics regions, including Hamburg, Munich, Frankfurt and Stuttgart, modern space continues to be almost fully let.
Maximilian Tappert reports: "The occupancy rate in HIH Invest's logistics segment is over 99 percent. Even in demanding markets, we were able to extend expiring contracts largely with existing tenants." Marten Helms adds: "Catella was able to successfully re-let around 50,000 square metres despite individual insolvency-related losses, mainly at rents above the previous contract level. In general, vacancy is currently not a price issue, but a demand issue. Where users need space, we can achieve rents that are in line with the market and in some cases are rising."
A reinvigorated driving force is e-commerce, whose sales are growing again after a pandemic-related saturation phase and have now returned to their structural growth. International suppliers from Asia are particularly strong, significantly expanding their presence in Europe and increasingly looking for lifting and distribution areas. Established market participants are also increasing their activities again, which is leading to an increase in demand for space in many places.
Another growth area is the defense sector. According to GARBE Industrial, European defence efforts could generate a potential area of 7.5 to 14.9 million square metres for the private logistics and industrial sectors by 2030. "The market is still in an early phase. The first leases have already been made, but the time lag between the increasing demand and the reaction to it is more significant than in other industries. Therefore, the defense sector will not become noticeable as a driver until 2026," explains Tobias Kassner. Maximilian Tappert confirms: "HIH Invest has already concluded lease agreements with companies from the defence sector, but primarily for non-critical uses such as spare parts, material or textile logistics."
In addition to demand impulses, the focus is increasingly on energy supply. The electrification of truck fleets, the increasing energy demand due to automation and the demands of employees and customers mean that electricity availability is becoming a critical location factor. Manuel Schrapers comments: "Many existing properties do not yet have sufficient grid capacity to operate extensive charging infrastructures. Rapid network expansion is therefore essential for logistics locations in Germany to remain competitive."
Manuel Schrapers focused on the increasing geopolitical and economic importance of Eastern Europe for the logistics and production networks of European companies. Schrapers emphasizes: "Countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia or Romania have become highly attractive for international investors and expanding industrial companies. This is not only due to lower location costs, but above all to fast administrative processes, modern funding cultures and a pronounced welcoming culture towards industrial settlements. Many Eastern European regions also have a skilled workforce. This is increasingly influencing location decisions in favor of these countries." Marten Helms adds: "Especially in a European comparison, we see that Germany remains an extremely attractive logistics location despite individual regional overcapacities. We are observing a noticeable revival in investor demand, especially for properties with solid substance and clear location strength. Many international users are now securing space at an early stage in order to stabilize their supply chains and expand their presence in Europe."
For the year 2026, the experts paint a cautiously optimistic picture. A dynamic upswing due to the macroeconomic conditions is unlikely. "A slight revival in the transaction markets and the return of important demand groups point to a market phase that offers investors more planning security again," Kassner summarizes. "We see that many market participants are positioning themselves more strongly again after a phase of uncertainty," adds Maximilian Tappert. "Institutional investors in particular are acting more confidently again because price discovery has largely stabilized and capital values are showing the first signs of an upward trend. It is now crucial that we create an economic framework that gives users and investors alike planning security. In this way, the logistics market can once again become one of the most reliable segments in the real estate sector in 2026."
At the same time, the panel warned that low completion figures could lead to renewed bottlenecks and classic cycle effects in view of a possible recovery in demand from 2026. "Internationally, there is also growing pressure from Eastern European markets, which advertise attractive location costs, fast approval procedures and a high willingness to invest," Schrapers adds.
