Increase in turnover – also in the retail real estate investment segment
DIP partner Aengevelt Immobilien points out that real sales in brick-and-mortar retail increased by 1.1% in 2025 compared to the previous year, significantly exceeding GDP growth of 0.2%. The real estate company sees this development as the end of the weak phase of stationary retail and expects a revival of transaction activity in the retail real estate market segment against this background.
According to recent publications by the Federal Statistical Office, price-adjusted turnover in the retail trade as a whole increased by 2.7% in 2025 compared with the previous year. Internet and mail order trade even increased by 10.1% year-on-year, while retail in sales rooms increased by 1.1%.
In December 225, brick-and-mortar retail even recorded an increase of 2.7% in real terms compared to December 2024. A look at the monthly figures shows that it was not only an exceptionally good Christmas business. Rather, an increase in sales compared to the same period last year has been observed since September and has continued continuously since then.
Sales of pharmacies, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals and medical products grew particularly strongly (+3.5%). According to Aengevelt, the disproportionate growth in the health sector will continue in the long term due to demographic developments.
Consumer sentiment more subdued than actual consumer propensity.
The actual improvement in real sales is in contrast to the GfK Consumer Climate Index, which deteriorated again in the second half of 2025 and reached a markedly negative value of -23.4 in December. Consumer sentiment is thus much more subdued than the actual willingness to spend.
In this context, Aengevelt points out that growing consumer spending corresponds to strong real wage growth. Real wages in the 3rd quarter of 2025 were 2.7% higher than in the same quarter a year earlier – which corresponds exactly to the rate of increase in real retail sales in 2025 as a whole.
Sustainable trend reversal in retail sales expected.
According to Aengevelt, the trend reversal in retail sales is sustainable. For example, the Bundesbank expects a further smaller increase in GDP growth from 0.2% to 0.9% in 2026 and even by 1.4% in 2027. In addition to calendar effects, the reasons are mainly due to the massive increase in government spending on armaments and infrastructure as well as the slight increase in exports.
In addition, the increase in the savings rate in recent years has led to consumers building up reserves, which lead to catch-up effects in purchases and current consumer spending in the course of recovery processes.
This has various effects:
- Aengevelt expects that increases in sales in brick-and-mortar retail will also be reflected in an analogous gradual revival of transaction and investment dynamics in the retail real estate asset class. This development was already evident in 2025 with an increase in transaction volume in this asset class of around 10% to just under EUR 6.5 billion.
- In view of the positive sales development, new locations and expansions are also being opened again.
- For the first time in several years, rising prime rents are being reported in the top retail locations, including for exclusive showrooms, for example in the technology and automotive sectors.
- The decline in sales in the clothing sector corresponds to the fact that food and health are increasingly replacing fashion. The catering industry, which benefits from the reduction in the VAT rate, is still on a restrained expansion course, especially through system catering chains.
- The discount segment remains strong, in both the food and non-food sectors.
Conclusion:
Dr. Wulff Aengevelt, Managing Partner of DIP partner Aengevelt Immobilien: "The figures are better than the mood. In many places, the development of the propensity to consume is currently being talked about even worse than it is, and this does not correspond to the actual behaviour of consumers. The majority of the fundamental data – GDP, inflation, real wages, employment – suggest that the positive trend in retail sales will continue, including in the brick-and-mortar sector. This also opens up interesting investment prospects in the retail real estate asset class after a long time."
