The mood among commercial real estate financiers is subdued in the first quarter of 2026. That's what the new BF says. Quarterly Barometer, which was redesigned in cooperation with the Handelsblatt Research Institute. The survey took place from March 16 to 20, 2026 and was thus already under the influence of the Iran war. The newly calibrated barometer value of currently -9.74 points signals an overall limited willingness to finance. Almost 27 percent of those surveyed see a deterioration in financing conditions on the market in the past three months, while 68 percent expect a stable development. Only five percent perceive an improvement.
Professor Dr. Steffen Sebastian, Chair of Real Estate Finance at IREBS and Scientific Advisor to the BF. Quarterly Barometer, says: "The results must also be seen against the background of the Iran conflict. The markets have reacted surprisingly calmly so far, but this composure is increasingly fragile. In my opinion, a scenario of stagnating growth and higher inflation at the same time has become more likely. For real estate financing, the problem at the moment is not so much the absolute interest rate level as an interest rate environment that can become unstable again at any time."
When it comes to new business in the commercial real estate financing sector, almost 73 percent of those surveyed report stagnation, while a good 27 percent report a growing volume of business. A similar picture emerges when assessing the competitive situation: around three-quarters of those surveyed see no change compared to the previous quarter. Of the remaining quarter, however, the majority report an intensifying competitive situation. "We have also been observing for several months that financiers are competing somewhat more strongly with each other again. This is a positive sign for the market, as it signals a higher willingness to finance and dampens margins," says Francesco Fedele, CEO of BF.direkt AG.
