BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes data on the logistics market Q1 2026
The Ruhr logistics market has made a good start to 2026 and can report a pleasing interim balance after the first three months: With a total take-up of 120,000 m², the polycentric logistics region even recorded its best start to the year since 2020. The significant increase in take-up of almost 52% compared to the first quarter of 2025 and the jump above the ten-year average (+10%) can also be seen as further positive factors for the current buoyant leasing momentum. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
Leasing in Duisburg made a significant contribution to sales of a good 61% of market activity: With the major deals of the international e-commerce fulfillment company Goodcang (29,000 m²), the groundbreaking ceremony for a production hall for Siemens Mobility in Logport Rheinhausen (20,000 m²) and the deal of the Chinese retail group JD.com (18,000 m²), the three largest contracts since the beginning of the year have been in the Ruhr metropolis. In addition to the deals in Duisburg, the focus of demand so far this year has been primarily in the central sub-regions of the Ruhr region. In this context, smaller and medium-sized rentals in cities such as Essen, Dortmund or Gelsenkirchen should be mentioned in the first place.
“Although the level of rental prices has not changed significantly since the end of 2025, in a 12-month comparison, there is an increase of around 5% in both peak and average terms. Premium space in top locations is still up to €8.00/m² and an average of around €6.70/m² is currently being achieved,” explains Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
Retail logistics remains the number 1 sales driver
The distribution of turnover among the most active sectors of the logistics leasing market is currently clearly dominated by companies active in the field of retail logistics. However, especially in the case of large corporations that come from Asia and are geared towards online retail, the distinction between trade and logistics services is often fluid. The players Goodcang and JD.com should be mentioned here.
In this context, the retail sector has so far been underrepresented with a share of just under 6%, but the demand impulses emanating from this sector are indirectly reflected in the high earnings contribution of logistics service providers (a good 57%). Not only proportionately, but also in terms of volume, the logistics companies were able to achieve an above-average result. In addition to the deals of the prominent online players, freight forwarding and logistics companies should also be mentioned, among others, which have made a move in the segments up to 10,000 m². With a further almost 17%, the manufacturing sector is also represented in the industry ranking as a result of Siemens Mobility’s deal.
The broad demand base in the Ruhr region is also reflected in the size categories of the deals concluded: all categories of 5,000 m² or more account for at least 20% of the overall balance.
Prospects
With very good leasing momentum in the first quarter, the Ruhr logistics market was able to seamlessly pick up where it left off in the second half of 2025. Thus, an average take-up in the coming months would be sufficient to present another increase in earnings by the middle of the year. Whether this can then be realized depends above all on the developments of geopolitical conflicts, which have the potential to influence market sentiment in one direction or the other at any time due to the global networking of the logistics industry.
As long as the various trouble spots do not escalate further, demand is likely to remain consistently high, especially from users from the e-commerce sector and from the Asian region. The challenge here is primarily to map the usually large-scale and often short-term requests of these actors. Overall, however, no significant changes are expected in the supply situation: While some available space in existing properties has been let out, expiring leases and new developments coming onto the market are largely causing sideways movements in the supply of space.
“The development of prime rents must be viewed in a differentiated way: Even if more and more contracts are being concluded in the range of or even above the prime rent of €8.00/m², these are in many cases associated with extensive incentive packages. This means that at most minor adjustments can be expected for the coming months,” says Bastian Hafner, Head of Logistics & Industrial Advisory at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
