MARKET COMMENTARY SEPTEMBER 2026
A market commentary by Jürgen Michael Schick
In the run-up to the Berlin parliamentary elections on 20 September, we are seeing significantly greater attention for locations beyond Berlin’s city limits in our discussions with existing investors. The prices provide a visible incentive for this.
While prices tended to trend upwards across many sub-markets in the previous market phase, the picture has been much more inconsistent since 2022. In Berlin and its surrounding area, some segments have significantly corrected their highs, while others are stabilizing or are already showing rising values again.
For example, the median purchase price for apartment buildings in the city of Berlin fell from €2,847/m² (2022) to €2,040/m² (2024), before a slight recovery to €2,200/m² began in 2025. Properties in Potsdam (construction condition medium to good), on the other hand, remained at a high and stable level over the entire period and, at €2,960/m², were even significantly higher than the average prices paid in Berlin in 2025. And in the same year, houses between the metropolis and the state capital (Potsdam-Mittelmark district, built before 1948, Berlin area) traded for an average of €1,472/m². A remarkable absolute difference of €1,488/m² for properties that are often only a few kilometres apart.
More than anything else, such ranges show the cardinal importance of the precise analysis of regional and property-specific factors for a successful investment in this market environment.
Berlin and Potsdam are at different points in the price cycle
For investors, this results in different opportunities. Berlin and Potsdam are far from following the same price development. The most recent cycle clearly shows this: Berlin first went through a strong upward phase and then a pronounced correction. In Potsdam, both swings were much weaker.
Those who are betting on a recovery after the Berlin price correction are more likely to find this starting point in the capital. Potsdam is at a different point in the cycle. This is precisely why an investment in the surrounding area must be evaluated from the development of the respective submarket.
At the property level, the regulatory gap remains significant
For investors, an important difference between Berlin and the surrounding area today lies at the property level. In Berlin, the conversion of existing rental apartments into condominiums in buildings with more than five apartments citywide is generally subject to approval until the end of 2030. In addition, there are 82 social preservation areas in which certain construction and property law projects require additional approval.
The gap in rent formation is now smaller. Since 1 January, the rent brake and lowered capping limit have been in force in 36 Brandenburg cities and municipalities. These include numerous growth locations in the Berlin area. Anyone who compares the two markets from a regulatory point of view must therefore take a closer look at the respective level.
Demand follows the travel time
An investment in the surrounding area becomes viable where the population development is right and Berlin can be reached quickly. Katrin Zakrzewski (Director Real Estate Finance Sales, Region East, Deutsche Bank AG) described locations in the regional rail network as particularly interesting from a financing point of view in the current SCHICK webinar: “Opportunity Market Bacon Belt”.
With increasing distance, a place must generate more demand from its own resources. Jobs and a stable demand for housing then gain in importance.
How great the economic incentive on the tenant side can be is shown by a sample calculation from the webinar. If you assume 15 euros per square metre in the surrounding area and 20 euros in Berlin for an energy-efficient new apartment with 80 square metres, the difference is 400 euros per month. That is 4,800 euros per year and 48,000 euros over ten years. Commuting costs reduce this gap. The order of magnitude remains large enough to influence housing decisions in favour of well-connected suburban locations.
Berlin remains a core market, the surrounding area is becoming more independent
Berlin remains one of the most attractive residential investment markets in Germany. At the same time, independent sub-markets are developing in the suburbs with their own price trends and their own demand base. For investors, this expands Berlin’s search radius without the surrounding area becoming a substitute for the capital.
Additional opportunities arise along the strong transport axes. The location risk increases with increasing distance. It is therefore crucial to read the respective sub-market for yourself. The Berlin residential investment market extends economically beyond the city limits, but not as far as desired.
The suburbs are developing their own sub-markets. Anyone who invests there must read each location according to its own demand and price cycle.
