Sentiment among commercial real estate financiers deteriorated significantly in the second quarter of 2026. This is shown by the current BF. Quarterly barometer compiled by BF.direkt AG in cooperation with the Handelsblatt Research Institute. The barometer value fell from -9.74 to -25.97 points. Such a negative value signals a severely limited willingness to finance. The survey took place from 8 to 16 June 2026.
According to the survey, many key parameters have worsened: Almost half of the respondents (46.15 percent) said that financing conditions had deteriorated compared to the previous quarter. In Q1, this figure was still 27.27 percent. The development of new business is also more negative. 23.08 percent reported a decline in new business in Q2 (Q1: 0.0 percent). The development of loan volumes is also pointing downwards: across all sizes of institutions, there is an increase in smaller loans of less than EUR 10 million and a decrease in larger financing in the range of EUR 50 to 100 million and over EUR 100 million.
There were also shifts in the way credit decisions were made. 26.92 percent (+17.82 percentage points) of respondents said that credit decisions were largely influenced by the risk department. By contrast, no credit decisions at all were largely influenced by the new business segment (-7.69 percentage points).
Professor Dr. Steffen Sebastian, Chair of Real Estate Finance at IREBS and Scientific Advisor to the BF. Quarterly Barometer, says: “The results can be explained primarily by the Iran war and its consequences. The energy price shock has an inflation-increasing effect, which in turn leads to fears of rising interest rates. This hits an industry that has already been in a fragile situation since the sharp rise in interest rates in 2022.”
Francesco Fedele, CEO of BF.direkt AG, adds: “The last quarterly barometer survey was conducted at the very beginning of the Iran conflict. Many financiers initially reacted calmly. However, this serenity disappeared in the course of Q2 and led to a collapse in sentiment and thus in the barometer.”
Dr. Sven Jung, Director Economic Analysis & Financial Planning at the Handelsblatt Research Institute, comments: “One of the other key findings of the survey is that competition between institutions for good financing is decreasing, as 26.92 percent of respondents stated. In the first quarter, it was still 5.88 percent. On the other hand, the rate of NPLs has increased: the proportion of respondents who reported an increase grew from 18.18 to 30.77 percent. Both partial results are in line with the negative development in the second quarter.”
Fabio Carrozza, Chief Sales Officer of BF.direkt AG, comments: “The findings of the quarterly barometer coincide with our observations in practice: We are currently seeing that many banks are managing their new business much more selectively and, at the same time, are increasingly concerned with problem loans in their portfolios. Both tie up resources and reduce the willingness to enter into new financing. Debt funds use the resulting opportunities to finance projects that are fundamentally viable, but no longer fit into every bank grid.”
By contrast, there was less movement in loan-to-values (LTVs) or loan-to-costs (LTCs) and margins. The margins developed inconsistently depending on the type of use, ranging from 135.0 basis points (residential) to 184.3 basis points (logistics) for existing properties and from 252.7 basis points (residential) to 301.1 basis points (office) for project developments. The LTVs (portfolio) averaged 64.2 percent and the LTCs (project development) 66.3 percent across all types of use.
Methodology
The BF. Quarterly Barometer is compiled by the Handelsblatt Research Institute on behalf of BF.direkt AG, a specialist in the financing of real assets. Scientific advisor to the BF. Quarterly Barometer is Prof. Dr. Steffen Sebastian, holder of the Chair of Real Estate Finance at IREBS. The index comprehensively reflects the mood and business climate of real estate financiers in Germany.
In order to determine the BF. Quarterly Barometer, 38 experts are surveyed every quarter, all of whom are directly entrusted with lending to real estate companies. The panel consists of representatives from various banks and alternative financiers.
The value of the BF. The Quarterly Barometer is composed of statements on the following aspects: assessment of current financing conditions, development of new business, average loan volume of individual transactions, leading department in credit decisions, development of the NPL ratio, importance of alternative financing options and development of the competitive situation.
