NAI apollo: Logistikflächenmarkt Rhein-Main schließt 2025 über Vorjahresniveau

In contrast, there was a strong upswing in leases in new construction projects in the final quarter. Here, the corresponding leases rose over the course of the year from 66,700 square metres at the end of the third quarter to 166,500 square metres for the year as a whole. This also includes the two largest leases of the fourth quarter of 2025 with the deals of a logistics service provider for 30,000 square meters in a project development by Dietz AG in Bürstadt and a trading company for 25,000 square meters in a joint development of Fraport and MB Park in Kelsterbach.

This accounts for a total of 171,300 square metres. The previous year's level is thus exceeded by 3.8 percent, and the 2023 result by as much as 78.9 percent. New construction developments on the Frankfurt market have recently increased again and are attracting noticeable interest from users, especially in the large-scale segment, where the supply of modern space remains scarce. "However, sales results from the last record years, such as most recently in 2021, when new construction contracts of around 330,000 square metres were recorded, remain far from being matched. For such figures, new construction activities are currently at too low a level, slowed down by high construction and financing costs, but also a lack of suitable building plots," says Stefan Weyrauch, partner at NAI apollo.

However, having had a weak start to the year, they were the market-dominant land user, especially in the second half of the year. For the year, they have 212,900 square meters and a market share of 42.9 percent. "In the large-scale clusters over 5,000 and over 10,000 square metres respectively, they formed by far the strongest land user group with shares of over 60 and almost 50 per cent respectively. In the segments below 5,000 square meters, on the other hand, warehouse and logistics service providers play a subordinate role," says Kanzler. Here, companies from industry and manufacturing occupy first place with a market share of just under 30 percent. "In terms of total sales, the warehouse and logistics service providers are followed by retail with 21.4 percent. Companies from industry and manufacturing hold third place with 18.1 percent," says Weyrauch.

Both the largest and the most deals have taken place here. The south-west, located between the A63 and A5 motorways, stands out in particular. "220,400 square metres, or 44.4 per cent of this year's take-up, were recorded here – including the five largest deals and the majority of new leases of the year. In comparison, the sub-markets outside the south are falling behind with market shares of between 2 and 10 percent," says Tilse.

According to current forecasts, economic output will increase somewhat more strongly in 2026, but a real trend reversal is not yet expected. At the same time, there are risks – as shown by the customs dispute with the USA, which briefly resurfaced at the beginning of the year – that could still prevent a further market recovery. "Positive impulses will continue to be associated with the current investment programmes of the Federal Government. Above all, an increasing demand for warehouse and logistics space is expected from the security and defense industry. However, it remains to be seen to what extent the local market can benefit from this," said Kanzler.

Rental decisions will also take more time in the coming months than in the past or will be cancelled altogether. Flexible rental options are preferred. In the year just ended, this led to longer re-letting periods for vacant space, especially on the fringes of the market and for older properties. At the same time – as the results in the last quarter of 2025 show – demand for modern warehouses and logistics halls in central locations remains high. "New construction sites are in demand. Especially in the large-scale segment above 10,000 square meters, the demand for new developments continues to exceed supply. In this way, the few current speculative construction projects, such as the development of a project developer in Kahl am Main with around 25,000 square meters of logistics space, will quickly find a user," says Weyrauch. This excess demand has recently led to rising rents. For example, the prime rent for warehouse and logistics space of 5,000 square metres or more at the end of 2025 will be 8.60 euros per square metre. This is 20 cents more than in the previous quarter. Compared to the end of 2025, there is an increase of 50 cents. A further moderate increase in prime rents is expected in the coming months. With regard to take-up, it can be assumed that take-up will stabilise at the current level or that there will be a slight increase in market activity. "The economic development in the coming quarters is of central importance here. Against this background, a sales result for 2026 in the range of 500,000 square meters is possible at this point in time, which would exceed the 2025 result, but the long-term average would again remain unreached," Tilse predicts.