Following the first nine months of 2026, the Hamburg investment market recorded a transaction volume of €1.2 billion. Whilst this figure remains significantly (48 per cent) below the long-term average, the 7 per cent decline is moderate when compared with the comparatively strong figure from the previous year. In the ranking of Germany’s top investment markets, the Hanseatic city thus retains its second place, behind Munich and ahead of Berlin. These are the findings of an analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.
“Following a strong first half of the year, and in particular a second quarter characterised by high turnover, market momentum slowed somewhat in the third quarter. Between July and September, transactions totalling around €239 million were recorded, following €306 million in the first quarter and €661 million in the second quarter. At the same time, the frequency of transactions also declined. In particular, there was a lack of large-volume deals to drive a higher quarterly result. Nevertheless, investment activity is distributed relatively evenly across the various asset classes among the completed transactions,” explains Heiko Fischer, Managing Director and Head of the Hamburg branch of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.
Over a twelve-month period, net prime yields for office property have risen by 10 basis points to 4.35 per cent. Retail properties in prime locations saw a more pronounced increase of 20 basis points and currently yield 3.95 per cent. The rise in yields was most pronounced in the logistics sector, where the prime yield increased by 30 basis points to 4.70 per cent.
Office investment volume on a par with the previous year, with a strong focus on medium-sized deals
Office investments lead the asset class ranking with around €500 million, returning to the previous year’s level. Against the backdrop of an expanded product range, the current market is characterised by a higher number of successfully completed transactions, with investment volume in the office segment distributed relatively evenly across the quarters. The logistics (€278 million) and retail (€247 million) segments are also performing well. However, the above-average share of both asset classes is primarily attributable to a small number of large-volume deals.
So far this year, transaction activity has once again been concentrated to a greater extent in prime locations. The city centre and the city outskirts together account for 53 per cent of the transaction volume, which is only slightly below their long-term average of 57 per cent.
The distribution by transaction size is currently dominated by medium-sized transactions. Deals worth between €10 million and €50 million account for a significantly above-average share of the transaction volume, totalling just over €630 million, or 53 per cent. By contrast, only one deal has been recorded to date in the €50–100 million segment. Whilst large deals exceeding €100 million continue to make a significant contribution to total turnover, accounting for 37 per cent, no further deals were concluded in this market segment during the third quarter. This underscores the current level of caution in the high-volume segment.
Outlook
Following the first nine months of the year, there are many indications that the Hamburg investment market is set to continue its recovery, even though momentum slowed slightly in the third quarter. The broader market activity and the stabilising number of office transactions are positive developments. At the same time, investment activity is spread across several asset classes and size categories and is therefore less heavily dominated by large-volume individual deals than in earlier market phases.
The operating environment for the Hamburg investment market remains challenging for the time being. Higher capital market yields, the renewed widening of yield spreads and geopolitical uncertainties are weighing on pricing and leading to highly selective investor behaviour. Accordingly, further yield adjustments cannot be ruled out in the coming months, although the future range for financing costs is becoming increasingly clear. The leading central banks are resolutely countering the persistently high inflationary pressure and will act accordingly.
“Hamburg, however, continues to benefit from its high quality as a business location, a broad economic structure and resilient end-user markets. At the same time, there are increasing signs of economic stabilisation, as indicated, amongst other things, by the recent rise in the ifo Business Climate Index and the upward revisions to GDP forecasts. Combined with a well-stocked deal pipeline, this points to a moderate recovery in the final quarter. An investment volume in the region of around €2 billion therefore still appears achievable,” said Heiko Fischer.
Link to the market report: https://www.realestate.bnpparibas.de/marktberichte/investmentmarkt/hamburg-report
