Logistics real estate market: tailwind despite geopolitical tensions

The rental market for logistics properties has started 2026 with new momentum. Demand picked up noticeably at the beginning of the year, but could be slowed down again by the Iran war. At the same time, structural demand drivers such as the renewed growth in e-commerce are becoming increasingly important. Tobias Kassner, Head of Research & ESG at GARBE Industrial, Michael Marcinek, Head of Business Development at GARBE Industrial, Gerhard Lehner, Head of Germany at Savills Investment Management (Savills IM), and Maximilian Tappert, Head of Transaction Management Logistics at HIH Invest, discussed these developments at RUECKERCONSULT's online press conference "Rental Market for Logistics Real Estate: Between New Dynamics and Structural Change".

At the start of the year, the rental market for logistics real estate is much more robust than the economic conditions would suggest. "We have achieved a leasing rate that trumps the overall economic situation. The first quarter was very positive throughout," says Marcinek. The market is thus building on a strong final quarter of 2025 and continuing the stabilization of recent months. From the point of view of the research team at GARBE Industrial, too, a consolidated picture emerges. "Take-up has returned to pre-Corona levels," says Kassner. "We are currently seeing a normalization instead of a slump."

However, as a result of geopolitical tensions, market uncertainties are currently increasing again. "In addition to the economic pressure, the logistics industry is also burdened by rising energy and transport costs," says Kassner. "Due to higher energy prices, disrupted supply chains and rising material costs, construction costs are also rising again. Originally, we had expected an easing of tensions here." At the same time, however, the recurring crises also create structural opportunities: "Companies are making their supply chains increasingly resilient, for example through regionalization and the build-up of safety stocks. This creates additional demand for logistics space," says Kassner.

The logistics real estate market is currently receiving a tailwind primarily from a renewed increase in demand from e-commerce. "We assume that online retail will develop with stable growth of around five percent in the long term," says Kassner. Additional impetus comes from new players and sales channels from the Asian region. "Since the turn of the year, demand has increased significantly, also driven by East Asian e-commerce companies," reports Tappert. "They are now among the most important buyers, especially in the Ruhr area." Lehner also sees a stronger loyalty of these users: "Asian users in particular are increasingly concluding long-term leases and securing locations over longer terms." Lehner also observes a shift in user structures: "Third-party logistics providers are increasingly under pressure on margins and do not always extend logistics contracts in the long term or give up locations. Space will then increasingly be rented directly from Asian logistics companies for consumer goods." In addition, the quality of the properties is becoming increasingly important: "Energy efficiency is playing an increasingly important role in leasing decisions."

Another potential demand driver is the defense sector. "We see additional demand here, but this will only be reflected in the market over the coming years," says Kassner. A large part of the demand is attributable to owner-occupiers, so that the effects in the rental market are only reflected to a limited extent. Nevertheless, there are initial examples: "We have implemented a lease in Sweden to the defense authority there," reports Lehner, emphasizing: "Such uses are quite challenging, because as an owner or property manager you have hardly any access to the property due to increased security requirements." So far, however, such rentals have remained the exception.

The vacancy rate in the German logistics real estate market remains low. "The vacancy rate is practically zero in our portfolio," says Lehner. According to Tappert, vacancies at HIH Invest are also "extremely low". However, there are clear regional differences: While established logistics regions continue to be in demand, eastern German markets in particular are coming under increasing pressure. "The new federal states are currently lagging behind due to an overhang from the past," says Marcinek. The high supply there makes renting more difficult: "Some locations are no longer a sure-fire success," says Lehner. One example is Leipzig: "The location is strongly influenced by the automotive industry. Demand there is correspondingly low at the moment," explains Tappert.

Despite continued low vacancy rates, the rental momentum has recently weakened significantly. "There will no longer be any major leaps in rent development in the logistics sector," says Tappert. Instead, the level is stabilizing: "We are seeing rather stagnating rents with increases at the inflation level." At the same time, competition for users has intensified. "There is increasing competition for tenants. You have to offer significantly more incentives today than you did one or two years ago," says Tappert.

A relatively new phenomenon in the leasing of logistics space is the issue of increasing subletting. According to Colliers, a good eight percent of the total demand volume is now accounted for by sublet space, reports Kassner. Tappert observes two typical scenarios: "In the future, users secure more space than they can initially occupy." In addition, space would be sublet during the term "because it can no longer be fully used". For owners, the design of subletting clauses is therefore becoming increasingly important. "We don't want a tenant to pass on the location to third parties after a few years and outsource the tenancy permanently," says Marcinek. Otherwise, the investment would become less attractive, as the original tenant would only exist on paper. Fortunately, however, such cases are rare.

Commenting on the further outlook for the logistics real estate market, Kassner says: "We are currently dealing less with a classic market cycle and more with geopolitical influences." Accordingly, the general conditions – for example with energy prices or interest rates – and reliable forecasts are currently only possible to a limited extent. Experts agree that the structural drivers in the logistics real estate market are intact and that there are good reasons to believe that the positive development will continue. However, for this to happen, industry must also recover in order to generate additional demand.