My opinion.
Rent indexes are powerful instruments. The rents they show are upper limits for rent increases. Where the rent brake applies, as in Berlin, even new contract rents may not exceed the local comparative rent by more than 10%. But how realistic is the Berlin rent index anyway?
16,000 rental contracts are said to have been evaluated by the ALP Institute for Housing and Urban Development in order to create the rent index. Rents that have been newly agreed or changed in the past six years were taken into account. However, only 5% of new lettings, which reflect the current state of housing market activity, are included in the sample. This means that the rent index is already hopelessly outdated when it is published.
The Berlin rent index of 30 May 2024 shows an average net cold rent of EUR 7.21/m². Immoscout24 has determined an asking rent of EUR 11.85/m² for the same date – that’s 64% more! According to the rent index, rents are said to have risen by a whole 0.7% compared to the previous year – and that with an inflation rate of 5.9%! In a word: The rent index does not reflect the current market development, as required by § 558c BGB, but it shows completely outdated data.
It is not surprising that under these circumstances fewer and fewer investors are willing to build new apartments. Berlin’s housing shortage is homemade, and the new rent index is making its contribution.
