The general mood of the Pfandbrief experts remains positive
There is a slight deterioration in sentiment among the vdp member institutions
for covered bonds and unsecured bank bonds. In all three
However, positive values have still been determined. This is the
Results of the eighth survey on the vdp emissions climate.
The score for unsecured bank bonds was slightly higher in June 2026.
decline to +16 points (after +22 in December 2025). The score for
Pfandbriefe decreased from +14 to +14 in the past six months.
+7 points. Both developments led to the overall score increasing from +17 to
+11 points.
The vdp emissions climate is surveyed and published twice a year. In doing so,
the sentiment indicator is displayed in a range of -100 to +100 points
.
| Score for | June 2026 | December 2025 | June 2025 | December 2024 | June 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pfandbriefe | +7 | +14 | -1 | -18 | -11 |
| Unsecured bank bonds | +16 | +22 | +5 | -8 | -14 |
| Total | +11 | +17 | +1 | -14 | -12 |
Strong demand for Pfandbriefe
The vdp member institutions are currently experiencing strong demand for
Pfandbriefe, as can be seen from the corresponding sub-score (+71 points). The value
is thus significantly above the expectations of six months ago (+22 points).
In total, the vdp member institutions
issued new Pfandbriefe worth EUR 32.2 billion this year, which corresponds to
a slight increase of 2% compared to the issue volume in the same period of the previous year.
Mortgage Pfandbriefe accounted for EUR 23.8 billion (up 6%) and
Public Pfandbriefe: EUR 8.4 billion (minus 8%). In the case of liquid Pfandbriefe,
in the benchmark format (≥ 500 million euros), 20
billion euros, which corresponds to the level of the previous year.
From the point of view of Steffen Stachna, Senior Manager in the Capital Markets Division of the vdp,
the strong demand underlines once again the crisis resilience of the
Pfandbrief and its importance as a funding tool for issuers and as a high-quality
high-quality investment product for investors. The Iran-related
higher inflation expectations and yield rises would only have led to a short period of time
issuance pause. The vdp emissions climate reflects the current positive
sentiment among capital market experts. With a view to the coming
months, there is a slightly subdued outlook, commented Stachna.
Determinants of future demand for Pfandbriefe
Following the good sales results in the first five months of this year,
the experts of the member institutions for the next six months
more cautious in their expectations of demand, which is reflected in a
score of +6 points for Pfandbriefe. Furthermore, good
oversubscription results: The corresponding score for the coming
six months is +34 points, similar to the current
Assessment (+37 points). A further slight improvement is expected
at the achievable asset swap level, here is the score for the development in
over the next six months at +6 points after a current -6 points. As a
the premium on German government bonds will continue to weigh on demand
, here the score is -38 points for the next six
months – after currently -32 points.
“The vdp emissions climate reflects the current positive mood among the
Capital market experts. Looking ahead to the coming months, there is a clear
slightly subdued view.”
Steffen Stachna, Senior Manager in the Capital Markets Division of the vdp
Slightly gloomy sentiment for unsecured bank bonds
The picture is similar to that for Pfandbriefe for unsecured
Bank bonds: While the value for the current assessment is +48 points,
for the demand for unsecured bonds over the next six months.
Months with a score of +4 points. Slightly more optimistic than for Pfandbriefe
is the expectation of asset swap spreads to be achieved:
the following six months +16 points determined, after +40 points currently.
Rising yields expected on ten-year German government bonds
The general interest rate development over the next six months will consist of
the experts’ view is clearly positive about the future demand for
Pfandbriefe and unsecured bank bonds. A good 60% of respondents
expect yields on ten-year German government bonds to rise slightly
to 3% to 3.2% – up from 3% at present. Around 10% of the experts expect
to over 3.2%, while 30% of the
falling yields.
