The Research & Research team of Colliers France shares its reading of the main indicators of the commercial real estate market for the 1stquarter of 2026, published by Immostat.
This is a real chill on the commercial real estate investment market in the 1stquarter of 2026. Indeed, with €1.860 billion, it is the worst start to the year, after the 1stquarter of 2009 (€790 million).
Investment fell by 48% over one year and by 74% over the five-year average. The office, which had regained some colour in 2025, has returned – with barely €696 million invested – to the low weight observed in 2024, i.e. 37% of investment in tertiary real estate.
The Ile-de-France region accounts for 69% of the volume invested, and 62% of the investment in the Ile-de-France region is still concentrated in Paris CBD. The downward adjustment of the metric values of offices resumes after a broadly stable year 2025. Investment continues to diversify into other asset classes.
Retail, with €849 million, declined year-on-year (€1.3 billion in Q1 2025) but still represents 46% of the total invested in commercial real estate thanks to 2 transactions of more than €200 million recorded in the quarter.
Significantly, investment in logistics continues to slow, with barely €226 million, or a third of the volume of Q1 2025, and only €6 million positioned in the Ile-de-France region. This loss of confidence in this asset is probably explained by the collapse of the market on the user side (44,200 m² placed in Q1 on the Ile-de-France logistics) and the prospects for growth in rental values that are being called into question.
To finish this gloomy picture, business premises barely covered 5% of the investment market in Q1 2026 with a meagre volume of €89 million. The international economy has hit a market that is still fragile. The resulting violent tightening of financing conditions, with the OAT rate approaching 3.90% in recent weeks, is resulting in a market blockage, which could compromise the expected objective of a 2026 market closing around a volume of €15 billion.
The office market in the Ile-de-France region also stalled in the 1stquarter of 2026 and suffered from the generalized wait-and-see attitude linked to geopolitics and electoral deadlines. Take-up reached a whopping 367,700 m², barely 4,000 m² more than in the 1stquarter of 2021, the worst1st quarter in the last 20 years. This represents a 15% drop in take-up over one year, with very strong geographical disparities.
The good performance of Péri-Défense should be highlighted, with strong growth both over one year and over the five-year average, with a large transaction of more than 21,700 m² in Rueil Malmaison.
In total, only 7 major transactions were signed during the quarter – half as many as in Q1 2025 – representing 21% of the Ile-de-France take-up market, including only one in Paris CBD.
This shortage of large players explains the overall underperformance. Intermediate areas and especially small areas (less than 1,000 m²) are up over one year (+3% over one year for the latter).
In this market configuration, the available supply is still growing, by 9% over one year to reach 6.3 million vacant m² in the Ile-de-France region. Average rents are stabilizing, with a decline beginning in some areas, including in Paris CBD, even though prime rent has reached a new record of €1,250/m²/year. The average rent continues to catch up in La Défense, Neuilly-Levallois and the Boucle Sud.
« After the weak rebound at the end of 2025, fuelled by a few very large transactions, the real estate investment market has once again come to a halt in the first quarter of 2026. The outbreak of war in Iran has clearly frozen any decision-making. Indeed, the sharp rise in financing costs linked to fears of a surge in prices and the growing uncertainty about the economic outlook are interrupting the market’s recovery. In this context, it is difficult to comment on the level of rates of return, due to the low number of completed transactions. As long as the risk premium does not rebuild, which would theoretically bring the CBD prime rate of return to around 5.25% at least, the market will not regain fluidity „, explains Sébastien Masson, Deputy Chief Executive Officer, in charge of Colliers‘ Capital Markets and Agency businesses.
“ The fact that some assets are taken over by their financiers with a distress sales objective could accelerate the adjustment of metric values.“
« The war in Iran and the major energy crisis it is causing are having a very clear impact on business confidence. After 3 years of continuous decline in take-up, this4th growth accentuates the slowdown in decision-making, and is reflected in an acceleration of the decline in take-up, in supermarkets and most geographical areas, including Paris CBD. The financial stake is becoming the central element of decision-making, which should allow the so-called defensive markets (La Défense, Boulogne, Issy-les Moulineaux, etc.) to do well. »
