Commercial real estate: a market almost at a standstill in the 1st half of 2026

The volatility observed on the OAT rate during Q2, as a result of an unprecedented geopolitical situation, crystallised the wait-and-see attitude of investors. This is indeed what emerges from the data for the 1st half of the year. If we exclude the Proudreed portfolio for business premises for €2.3 billion, investment in commercial real estate fell by 29% year-on-year, and by 44% over the five-year average.

In total, 6 transactions of more than €200 million represent 58% of the market in the 1st half of the year (in 2025, it was 25% of the total represented by large transactions). If we remove these extraordinary operations, the market is almost at a standstill.

Diversification remains the main characteristic of the investment market. Indeed, the office and its €1.9 billion fell by 22% over one year and by 53% over the five-year average; It now represents only 28% of the total invested compared to 47% on average over the period 2021-2025.

Retail is holding up rather well with more than €1.7 billion invested over the first half (+1% year-on-year).

Logistics , on the other hand, is still struggling with only €433 million, down 71% year-on-year, and 71% on the five-year average. In the Ile de France region, the market is concentrated in the capital (72% of the total IDF), and more specifically in Paris CBD, with 1.6 billion invested since the beginning of the year.

Prices continue to adjust, especially in the CBD. The lack of a reference transaction makes it difficult to establish relevant prime rates of return. Market information argues for maintaining a prime office rate in Paris CBD at 4.25%, but a slight decompression for more outlying offices, or other asset classes such as business premises or logistics is observed.

The office market in the Ile-de-France region is going through a period of historic turbulence, characterised by a further contraction in rental demand linked to economic and geopolitical uncertainties. At 750,000 m², take-up fell by 5% year-on-year and by 18% over the five-year average. This decline, after already 4 years of decline, can be explained by the decline in major signatures. The latter, which numbered only 15 during the 1st half of 2026 after 21 in June 2025, now represent only 25% of the total demand placed.

Small and medium-sized stores are holding up rather well. The geographical reallocation of the market is continuing gradually, with the first half of the year highlighting the very clear dynamism of the La Défense business district, which is doing well with 94,900 sq.m., up 52% year-on-year. Three of the 15 major signings are registered in this sector alone.

The Paris CBD market , on the other hand, is down more significantly, by 9% year-on-year to 148,200 m², benefiting from only two major signings compared to 4 in 2025.

The available supply continues on its upward trend – i.e. +10% per year – exceeding 6.5 million m² at the end of June 2026. The rise in rents is running out of steam and only a few areas such as Paris centre, La Défense or Neuilly Levallois and Boucle Sud are still resisting. Prime rent in Paris CBD remained stable in the 1st half of the year at €1250/m²/year.

The return to a form of pragmatism among users, who are now looking to reoptimize their spaces and control their costs, is confirmed quarter after quarter.

“After two rather flat years, the investment market is struggling again, even including the Proudreed transaction. The outbreak of the war in Iran has clearly stopped any decision-making, but the conclusion of a memorandum of understanding should allow for a gradual thaw. Financing costs remain high even though the French economic outlook has been revised downwards. The market adjustment cycle is slowly continuing and it is a necessary purge. The expected decline in valuations will make it possible to mechanically recreate the conditions for market fluidity, provided that it can benefit from financing capacity. But can we talk about a uniform real estate market? Sébastien Masson, Deputy Managing Director and Head of Capital Markets and Agency at Colliers, asks.

“The differentiation between asset classes and geography is more relevant than ever, and some asset types are clearly holding up better than others. The office market is declining in Ile de France for the 4th consecutive year and the available supply continues to grow to exceed 6.5 million m². This is weighing on the office investment market. If finance buys time, the only real way to save the value of an asset remains its use. »